I hope not. As I mentioned in the writeup for the latest Photo Caption, I always believed that eventually, someone in the outside world will roll a 5 or 8, and she'll return from Jumanji.

On one web site's recent survey, tinyurl.com/579gtu , more people (30%) want to see a Rousseau flashback than any other character, including Ben (22%)

As for Observation #5 - Jack learning that Claire is his half sister : I'm guessing that Ben tells Jack about his relationship to Claire in order to solicit his help. Kate will likely need to establish maternity of Aaron in order for the cover story to hold up, so Jack will be asked to give Kate a blood transfusion. The scene where Jack did a blood transfusion for Boone already established that he was a universal donor. That will be a "previously on LOST" clip in the episode where this happens.

I think it's more likely that the bomb was real, and was provided with the intention of being deployed. For whatever reason, the Island called an audible - let's assume it was because Ben was being truthful that he couldn't kill innocent persons. That statement alone could explain why they recruited Michael for the task.. Because he killed Ana Lucia and Libby, Michael was not an innocent person, which made him expendable.
Anyway, the Island called an audible and decided that the boat could not be blown up - possibly due to the extent of Locke's jealousy. Libby appeared on behalf of the island to keep Michael from detonating the device, which at the time was probably very much intact. When that failed to stop him, the Island took more drastic measures and turned the bomb into an everyday Microsoft product. Again, I believe that up to that point, the bomb was NOT a dud. I think that's why they made a point earlier in this episode to show that Michael's gun was in working order before it failed to fire later on.

Another thing I'm wondering - who on the boat is being considered "innocent" or at least undeserving of death? I thought at the time that it could actually be Michael - perhaps as a result of his attempt at self-sacrifice, he actually redeemed himself. Ben did tell him that he's now one of the "good guys".

Does "the island" actively project (especially off-island), or is it just an artifact of Novikov Principle that selected people can't kill themselves yet? Based on producers' comments, I tend toward the latter.

"When are we going to get a Lost comic book?"

I vote for a Vincent-centric comic. Fighting to get the stupid humans to see WTF is going on around them.

"Bernard [the] only one of the tail section not to die"

Oh, how can you forget Cindy of scarf fame ... for shame!

"Christian Shepard riding the stallion that Kate saw in the forest"

How about we just settle on "horse" (not stallion).

If (censored) were "train," would position on the list factor into "goodness?"

"Notice that Jack's way and Sayid's way got them off the island, at least."

Has that been proven to be for the best? After all, Ben clearly got off the island as well ...

"Because he blew Michael's cover on the boat. Soon, he will learn this was a mistake, and in order to protect the others that remain on the island, he will have to take Michael's place."

I question this as Sayid's motivation ... he couldn't give a flyin' F about Michael ... nor the rest as far as that's concerned (the only exception being Shannon, now passe) ... as you mentioned, he's a man of his own purpose ... there must be more to explain his "turn," other than simply protecting Rose/Bernard et al.

"Maybe he's looking for the island because he needs a cure for something."

Interesting idea ... but then why not be there himself? If you knew you were gonna die, and going to this island could cure you, wouldn't you be on the damned boat too?

"For all we know, Naomi was on the 'good person' side of the list that Michael got for Ben. What happens to you when you kill a good person?"

Sometimes the "good" person should die ... without trying to be blasphemous, a quite reknowned religious movement is based upon this premise. To the best of my knowledge, intent, regret, and repentance might be part of the equation ... then again. maybe not.

"Has Jacob 'moved on' to Hurley, in a desperate attempt to find one freaking person who will do the right thing?"

Or one who will do his bidding ... or all part of a carefully calculated plan? Note the "kitty litter" in Jacob scenes ... hate to ref other shows in this context, but find the "Twin Peaks/Black Lodge" entrance comparison too obvious to ignore.

"Everyone and their dog is smarter than the Losties."

So true! Could any random group be more ignorant in their actions than this one! They are all virtually out of a Scooby-Do ep in terms of their inexplicably stupid behavior (okay, maybe "Murder She Wrote"). Now, I attribute this to the "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" effect (w/ re to the early simple Q's everyone knows) ... let the audience (no matter how dull) think they are on to something that the protagonists either do not, or cannot seem, to see. It's a production hook, nothing more. Unfortunately, it interferes with the flow of the show. They use the occasionally brilliant inference to keep things moving ... frankly, I'm tired of it, and wish they would treat the audience with some minimal level of respect. Then again, when they have tried, so many people are apparently "left behind" ... popularity/integrity, such a difficult choice. Of course, money always wins. Stay tuned for more apparently brainless behavior.

Unfortuntely I have no time to put in my "$1.00" into this conversation.

But I have to say...
In the comic book... Vincent will be Smokey. =]

That was a good point about Sayid possibly working for Ben because he spilled the "lima beans" about Michael being Ben's MOTB. I still feel like Captain Gault already knew.

Ben obviously has a whole mind of information. I think though it may seem as though we accurately estimate his capabilities (by leaving some "overestimation" open), we still do in fact underestimate him.

We have no idea what he is capable of. We have a slight idea, but I don't think the writers have even scratched the surface of it.

I never liked Rosseau.
And Jack breathes weird.

To me (still desparately hoping the writers' promise that everything on the island has a rational explanation will turn out to be true) the central unanswered question is who/what is Smokey?

Since the writers haved already nixed the only explanation that made even half-rational sense to me (nano-bots) I'm really waiting to hear this one.

I like vacc's (2/vacc) bomb disarming island theory. My theory is that the bomb is real and Ben was able to accomplish two things through this gambit:

1) He learned that he can rely on Michael and that Michael is serious about following through.

2) He now has a live bomb on the boat. He can either detonate it remotely or give Michael the real code when he feels it is time.

Remember when Jack (I think it was Jack) asks Ben "What is the smoke monster?" and Ben says, almost convincingly, "I don't know."?

Is is possible that Ben really doesn't know? And that he's never seen it because Smokey only appears to the Losties? Or has that already been established?

So we're really back to Cecil's original question: what is it?

>Remember when Jack (I think it was Jack) asks Ben "What is the smoke monster?" and Ben says, almost convincingly, "I don't know."?

Locke. When Ben was scrambling for his life after having shot Charlotte and Locke was about to execute him.

Good post, Travis. Unfortunately, my brain is on a break along with the show, so I have nothing intelligent to contribute. But I did enjoy reading your thoughts.

Wild Guess 108:
Rousseau was wearing Charlotte’s body armor.

Actually this seems to be a relatively rhetorical question at this point, because I think it's pretty clear, based on who got off the island, Jack's comment about "neither" friend nor relative, etc. etc., that it's Michael. Or possibly Ben. At this point I basically have no doubt it's one of these two fellows, but we shall see. I really hope it's Mike, Ben seems way to important to where they are going with the rest of the season and the next two as well.

Random theory - possibly magnetic particles, iron dust? activatedd by the islands odd magnetic properties?

Rousseau did say it was a security system.

Another random theory. now with all this time shifting space time nonsense, is it possible that Jacob (who briefly phases in and out of view (in that episode where ben takes locke to seem him) is stuck between two times or worlds?

Ben is surprised to hear that Michael actually activated the bomb. That must be because he knows about the ghost Libby appearance. So either he planned it himself, or was informed about it by another, probably Jacob. Either way, how sly is that? Use the suicide bomber story to lure Michael in. Use the Libby apparition(?) to prevent him from detonating too soon. With the fixed bomb (or the Island's influence) as backup.